Russia Selling Military Equipment and Training to China to Aid Potential Airborne Invasion of Taiwan

Executive Summary

A London-based think tank, the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), has analyzed leaked Russian documents suggesting that Russia is supplying China with military equipment and technology to enhance its airborne capabilities, potentially to prepare for an invasion of Taiwan. The documents, obtained from the Black Moon hacktivist group, include contracts and equipment lists for high-altitude parachute systems and amphibious assault vehicles. The deal, initiated in 2021, involves the sale of 37 light amphibious assault vehicles, airborne armored personnel carriers, and command vehicles, totaling over $210 million. Russia also agreed to provide training to Chinese forces. The parachute systems, capable of drops from up to 8000 meters, would allow Chinese special forces to infiltrate territories stealthily. Although the documents do not explicitly mention Taiwan, analysts interpret the equipment as facilitating a potential invasion. The report highlights Russia's extensive airborne combat experience, which China lacks, and suggests this cooperation could accelerate China's airborne program by 10 to 15 years. The Kremlin, China, and Taiwan's defense and foreign ministries have not responded to requests for comments. The situation arises amid China's broader military modernization aiming for a world-class force by 2050 and increasing tensions over Taiwan's status.

Situation

The analysis by RUSI is based on approximately 800 pages of leaked Russian documents, including contracts and equipment delivery schedules from 2021 to 2024. The documents indicate completed stages of technical analysis, software modifications, and manufacturing of equipment. Russia's military assistance includes not only hardware but also training in command and control procedures for parachute forces. This cooperation comes as China seeks to enhance its airborne capabilities, which are relatively young compared to Russia's long history of airborne forces. The potential use of high-altitude parachute systems would enable Chinese forces to conduct covert insertions, possibly as a 'stage zero' operation in a Taiwan invasion scenario. The report also notes Russia's recent failures in deploying airborne troops effectively in Ukraine, contrasting with its combat experience. The geopolitical context includes China's claim over Taiwan and the possibility of an invasion as early as 2027, according to U.S. officials. The cooperation may also serve Russia's interests by strengthening ties with China and potentially distracting the U.S. from the conflict in Ukraine. The timeline shows initial agreements in April 2021, with ongoing developments through 2024. National responses remain muted, with no official statements from involved governments.

International Impact

This development heightens tensions in the Indo-Pacific region, raising concerns among Taiwan, the United States, and allied nations about China's military intentions and capabilities. The prospect of Russia aiding China militarily could complicate international diplomatic relations and security calculations. U.S. officials have warned of a possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan by 2027, and this cooperation may accelerate China's readiness. The situation may prompt increased military preparedness and diplomatic efforts by regional and global powers to deter conflict. Analysts suggest Russia's involvement aims to deepen strategic ties with China and potentially divert U.S. attention from Eastern Europe. The international community watches closely as this military collaboration could alter the balance of power and stability in East Asia.

Decision Maker Perspectives

Russian Government: Seeks to develop as a military supplier to China, fund its war in Ukraine, and potentially draw China into a conflict with the U.S. over Taiwan to distract from the Ukraine war.

Chinese Government: Pursuing military modernization to become a world-class force by 2050; enhancing airborne capabilities with Russian assistance to prepare for possible Taiwan invasion.

U.S. Government: Concerned about China's potential invasion of Taiwan by 2027; monitoring military developments and alliances that may affect regional security.

Source Perspectives

Royal United Services Institute (RUSI): Provides detailed analysis of leaked documents, highlighting the significance of Russian military aid to China in airborne capabilities and its implications for Taiwan.

Associated Press: Reports on the RUSI analysis, emphasizing the potential strategic impact and the authenticity of the leaked documents while noting the lack of official confirmations.

9News Australia: Presents the story with focus on geopolitical implications and regional security concerns, maintaining a neutral stance while citing expert analysis.